Verizon on SWiK

iPhone heading to EVDO/Verizon for 2009? | 9 to 5 Mac

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 02:25:50 -0700

Motorola Building Up 350-Person Android Team. Nokia Also Sniffing Around.

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 14:10:27 -0700

The iPhone may be the only game in town for serious mobile Web developers right now, but that won’t last long. Next year, the iPhone will see some serious competition from Google’s Android platform. Of course, T-Mobile will start selling the first Android phone, the G1 made by HTC, on October 22. But other cell phone manufacturers are gearing up for a major Android push.

The most significant of these may come from Motorola. One of the original partners in the Open Handset Alliance behind the open-source mobile OS, Motorola already has 50 people on its Android team and is growing that to 350, according to an Android developer approached by a headhunter to join the team. That is a huge commitment that shows how big a bet Motorola is making on Android.

This same source has also seen people from Nokia and Verizon at a recent Android developer conference. The conference was put on by Google last week for developers who had not yet seen the G1 to help prepare them for its launch. In general, in order to be an attendee, you had to have an Android app. Neither Nokia nor Verizon are official members of the Open Handset Alliance.

Nokia recently acquired the rest of Symbian it didn’t already own, and is determined to keep that OS as long as possible, since it powers all of its S60 phones. But Nokia may have an Android team sniffing around, which is smart even if it is for nothing other than to gain competitive intelligence. And if Android takes off, Nokia could decide to hedge its bets and launch its own Android phone.

There is a certain inexorable logic behind all the interest in Android.

1. It is a more capable mobile Web computer than anything other than the iPhone.
2. It is a very appealing development environment for app creators—and just like on the PC, apps will drive adoption.
3. Most importantly, as an open-source OS, manufacturers don’t have to pay a licensing fee to whoever controls the OS. Given the razor-thin margins in the cell phone business, that alone is reason for manufacturers to embrace Android (with the exception of Nokia, which owns Symbian). But you can see why Motorola might see Android as the key to its recovery.

Crunch Network: CrunchGear drool over the sexiest new gadgets and hardware.

Will the Credit Crunch Hit Silicon Valley?

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 13:19:00 -0700

Updated: The San Francisco Bay Area is living, it seems, in a protective cocoon of its own, oblivious to the current credit crunch and fiscal crisis that has been roiling the rest of America. This morning, while there is talk of a bailout plan being finalized, it hasn’t stopped almost everyone from cab drivers to doctors from worrying about the jaw-dropping sequence of events that has unfolded over the past few weeks.

I’ve been thinking about the impact of tightening money supply on larger technology companies. There are big players, like IBM and the telecom operators, who tap the commercial paper market to raise money pretty frequently. It seems logical that their ability to raise more money could be hampered. Curious, I got in touch with about a dozen or so big tech companies to take the pulse of their sentiment. So far, not many of them seem worried.

For instance, a Cisco Systems spokesperson pointed out that his company had about $26 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments. “As a result of our strong balance sheet and quarterly cash generation, we have very little requirement to access the credit or debt markets.”

I couldn’t get any takers at Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) to comment on the credit crunch and how it would impact their business. I wasn’t going to ask anything about the AOL-Yahoo-Microsoft menage a trois. Google declined to comment, mostly because it’s in a quiet period right now ahead of earnings. Like Cisco, those two companies have a ton of cash and very little need to tap credit markets.

There are a lot of names missing from the list, but many were not able to get back to us on time. I suspect on Monday we will update the story accordingly. Stacey has reached out to chip companies as well and will find out what they’re thinking. Update: Nvidia said it would lay off 360 people earlier this month in part because of the current economic conditions, but mostly because they are having a hard time financially, thanks to chip recalls and poor pricing decisions.

One sector I have worried the most about is telecom, where companies frequently go to the debt market and raise short-term capital. I have not heard back from AT&T and Verizon declined to comment. I think telecom companies do use commercial paper to raise money for their needs, and they will indeed feel some sort of an impact.

Level 3, one company I thought should be worried about tight debt markets, got back to me pretty quickly. Their spokesperson said that their “liquidity position is strong. We had $666 million in cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet as of the end of Q2, 2008…We do not have any debt due until Sept 2009 ($362M) and feel comfortable that we can pay that off with cash. We also have some (some) $500M due in March 2010, which we will have to refinance, but feel that we have plenty of time to get that taken care of.”

In addition to telecom, as CNET’s News.com points out things might get rough for clean technology companies. That shouldn’t come as a surprise since many of the cleantech projects are big-ticket items. In addition, large investment banks such as Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers were big players in raising financing for many cleantech companies. (You can follow the cleantech sector on our sister blog, Earth2Tech.)

Verizon Blackberry Storm Schedule Leaked!

Fri, 26 Sep 2008 10:21:06 -0700

Remember we told you about the Verizon Blackberry Storm leak couple weeks ago?

Well, it looks like Verizon employees will be doing some online courses for the Storm so that means it should be available soon after their training is over on November 2nd, 2008.

Nice, huh?

via engadget

Brought to you by: Zedomax.com

Verizon Blackberry Storm Schedule Leaked!

ISPs Tell Congress They Don’t Need Privacy Laws

Thu, 25 Sep 2008 16:17:13 -0700

Earlier today the second of two governmental hearings related to online privacy got underway. This particular hearing focused on deep packet inspection and how Internet service providers want to mine your data. The hearing kicked off with new data from Consumer Reports that said 72 percent of Americans are worried about their actions being tracked online. But apparently 61 percent are confident that what they do online is private and isn’t shared without their permission.

After the hullabaloo about NebuAd, which wanted to use deep packet inspection technology to determine where users surfed and then sell advertising against those surfing habits, I imagine consumers are more aware than ever about threats to their online privacy. But after listening to the hearing I’m not sure we will get meaningful legislation on this topic.

Already, the ISPs testifying before the committee, which included AT&T, Time Warner and Verizon, pushed the idea of self-regulation by the ISPs when it comes to online privacy. If the testimony from the AT&T executive doesn’t scare the heck out of anyone thinking their data isn’t tracked online, you’re clearly not listening. Broadly, all of the ISPs wanted some kind of informed opt-in to permit tracking on their online activity. For more details, plus the ISP’s plans for ensuring consumer privacy without legislation, check out their statements.

Representing the public, or at least the people who don’t make money from online advertising, was Public Knowledge President and Co-Founder Gigi B. Sohn, who warned against the use of deep packet inspection technology. She compared the use of DPI to ISPs reading your mail — an analogy used by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin when he issued the enforcement order last month against Comcast for throttling P2P traffic. Sohn said that:

ISPs are opening these envelopes, reading their contents, and keeping or using varying amounts of information about the communications inside for their own purposes. In some cases, ISPs are actually passing copies of the envelopes on to third parties who do the actual reading and use. In others, ISPs are using the contents to change the normal ways that the Internet works.

Some of the senators were clearly disturbed by the amount of information that could be collected via deep packet inspection and later sold for advertisers. Others wanted a way for consumers to see and control their online profiles. From a consumer perspective, I want to know if Congress will decide that an opt-in strategy will be enough, or if it will attempt meaningful legislation to protect privacy and data collection online. And how far would that legislation go? Would it address the data collected by search engines? Our cell phones? There’s a lot at stake here.

Verizon Pushes to Open Network

Wed, 24 Sep 2008 07:12:56 -0700

Apple should be Sued for Deceptive iPhone 3G Advertising!

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 11:10:30 -0700

Download latest version of Flash to view video!.

Click Here to View in Full Screen Mode

As much as I can appreciate the Safari mobile browser on the iPhone, I still hate the fact that Apple refuses to make “real” ads without trying to cover up the slowness of the iPhone.

Well, as I told you about how iPhone is the biggest marketing scam ever, it seems like people are slowly starting to realize what I’ve predicted all along.

If above video isn’t proof of deceptive advertising than you must be either stupid or you’ve been whitewashed by Apple’s ads. No matter what the case, you need to face the facts and that is no company in the U.S. is allowed to “lie” to the consumers, especially in a public commercial.

Look, all I want is the truth, I know iPhone 3G is still lagging behind Sprint and Verizon’s CDMA network so you don’t have to lie.

Next time, would you add “Time Elapsed” in the commercials so people know that it’s not really “blazingly” fast.

Heck, the iPhone 3G in the commercial is probably faster than my desktop landline LAN connection for god-sakes!

You are doing everything great Steve Jobs, just cut the bullshit out and we will keep lovin’ you.

Here’s and excerpt of False Advertising laws in the U.S. from Wikipedia:

Advertising is regulated by the authority of the Federal Trade Commission, a United States administrative agency, to prohibit “unfair and deceptive acts or practices in commerce.”^[3] While it makes laymen’s sense to assume that being deceptive is being unfair, deceptiveness in practice has been treated separately by the FTC, leaving unfairness to refer only to other types.^[4] All commercial acts may be deceptive, not just advertising, but noncommercial activity such as advertising for political candidates is not subject to prosecution under the FTC Act. The 50 states have similar statutes, which generally are very similar to that of the FTC and in many cases copied so closely that they are known as “Little FTC Acts.” While the terms “false” and “deceptive” are essentially the same for most, being deceptive is not the same as producing deception. What is illegal is the potential to deceive, which is interpreted to occur when consumers see the advertising to be stating to them, explicitly or implicitly, a claim that they may not realize is false and material. The latter means that the claim, if relied on for making a purchasing decision, is likely to be harmful by adversely affecting that decision. If an ad is implicitly false, evidence must be obtained for what consumers saw the ad saying, and for the materiality of that, and for the true facts about the advertised item, but no evidence is required that actual deception occurred, or that reliance occurred, or that the advertiser intended to deceive or knew that the claim was false.

Brought to you by: Zedomax.com

Apple should be Sued for Deceptive iPhone 3G Advertising!

Test driving iPhone 3G (Verdict: mediocre)

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 06:09:42 -0700

4G: Forget Cell Towers, Bring on the Femtocells

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 17:07:02 -0700

Will personal cell towers replace the giant monstrosities currently sitting on rooftops and beside highways? Manish Singh, a VP with Continuous Computing, says that may be the case with the 4G buildout. He spoke with me about the company’s new line of software and hardware for carriers deploying LTE networks, noting that those in North America and Europe are asking whether they should deploy citywide — or one consumer at a time, using femtocells.

He said two things are driving this, one being the huge capital expenditure associated with building out a wireless network and the second being the length of time it has taken for widespread use of the 3G data networks. Verizon started deploying its EVDO networks in 2003, but only in the last few months — thanks to better pricing and the iPhone — has 3G data been used by many customers. When it comes to 4G provided by LTE, a controlled femtocell deployment ensures that customers could get LTE speeds of up to 150 Mbps (in theory) while at home or in coffee shops and use the existing 3G network while out and about.

The femtocell strategy will be used in another 4G rollout — this time for WiMAX — as part of the Clearwire joint venture involving Clearwire, Sprint, Google and several cable companies. Earlier this year Dave Williams, a former wireless executive and now SVP with Comcast, told Light Reading the cable ISP will use femtocells to build out a network. Using femtocells will bypass wholesale network costs and eliminate some of the problems of backhaul that can stymie 4G networks, Williams said.

I doubt that wireless carriers will abandon towers altogether, but using femtocells to deploy 4G to customers who want to sign up for the service before a citywide deployment sounds like it could make sense. It could also lead to big returns for investors in femtocell companies such as ip.access, Ubiquisys, or the recently funded Percello.

If this story interests you, check out our upcoming conference:
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900 million PCs or 300 billion mobile handsets. Which is the bigger opportunity?
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Verizon, Your Hypocrisy is Showing

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:00:44 -0700

I happened across a post on Verizon’s Policy Blog this afternoon and had to chuckle. The entire post is an effort to refute statistics used by organizations that claim the U.S. is falling behind in speed or has really pricey broadband compared with other nations. We all know that statistics can lie, but this particular diatribe is hilarious coming from a company that has stood in the way of collecting meaningful broadband data for years, most recently by suggesting the government pay a nonprofit to collect it. From the Verizon post:

The statistics cited regarding broadband speed, penetration and pricing are confusing, often compare apples and oranges, and in most cases don’t measure really important factors such as who is deploying next generation technologies most rapidly. Mark Twain had a very earthy saying about statistics - “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics”. He meant this as a humorous observation about how easy it is to assume numbers are always right. But it is not the numbers per se but rather how they are used and how comparisons are made that is key.

So while the post knocks the numbers and reports available, Verizon, AT&T and other carriers know the penetration, costs and speeds of most of the broadband users in the nation — and continue to fight giving out those numbers. So, to Mark Twain’s “earthy” aphorism I would add, yes, there are lies, damned lies and spin.

IPHONE 3G TV (Sprint Instinct vs Iphone) - Music Download

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 10:00:10 -0700

www.iphone3gtv.blogspot.com Sprint Instinct vs Iphone - Music Download. Who will win?

FCC Gives Telcos Free Pass on Accountability

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:07:34 -0700

I promised I wouldn’t do more than two posts a day, but this one is such a doozy and so anti-consumer that I just couldn’t resist. Phone companies led by AT&T (same old company whose wireless network is breaking because of too many iPhones) wants FCC to allow them to send less information to the commission when it comes to things like customer complaints, network breakdowns and infrastructure-related investments. What’s weirder is that the great champion of phone companies, Kevin Martin, chairman of hte FCC, can’t wait to get this order out of the door and give a parting gift to his long-time friends.

“We need to update this for a level playing field with the marketplace of today,” Martin told The Washington Post. “On quality of service, for example, if that data is relevant for one carrier, then it should be relevant for all platforms.” In other words, instead of forcing cable companies to report this information and making them more accountable, too, he just wants to do away with any accountability for phone companies.

The order to remove all accountability is going to be passed today, according to The Washington Post, and with that we would have yet another proof that Federal Communications Commission doesn’t have consumer interests at heart. Its job should be to keep a tight leash on the carriers, spanking them with a wet bamboo cane every single time they do anything anti-consumer. Instead we have a toothless organization that serves everyone but the people. What do you guys think?

900 million PCs or 300 billion mobile handsets. Which is the bigger opportunity?
Mobilize 08: GigaOM’s Next-Generation Mobile Conference

[from 051227deli] My Verizon Online Sign In - Verizon Wireless

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 06:05:58 -0700

[from 051227deli] Broadband Access Built-In Laptops

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 09:05:55 -0700

[from 051227deli] Verizon Wireless UM175 USB Modem

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 08:06:43 -0700

Verizon Anti Iphone-3g: Leaked Document Shows Verizon's Psyops Anti-iPhone Propaganda

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 10:07:48 -0700

Stay on message. Stay on message.

Big Growth In US 3G

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 22:01:01 -0700

comScore says that the United States has caught up with Western Europe in the adoption of 3G with 28.4 percent of American mobile subscribers having 3G devices versus 28.3% in the largest countries in Europe. That works out to about 64.2 million devices - up 80% from last year. When it comes to 3G penetration are Italy and Spain lead U.S. The growth in 3G penetration comes at a time when the data revenues are growing at a rapid clip for the mobile carriers.

If this story interests you, check out our upcoming conference:
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Broadband Price Wars Could Hurt Consumers

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:02:37 -0700

Today the Wall Street Journal drills into another aspect of the maturing broadband market: price wars. But instead of being good for consumers, in the end these may actually end up hurting them — by enticing them into capped services from cable providers or tying them to plans with early termination fees.

With fewer new customers signing up with DSL or cable providers, we’ve tracked the side effects of maturity such as negative advertising and the boosts in speed offered to prospective customers. To illustrate the expected price wars, the WSJ cites price cuts from Verizon and pricing guarantees from AT&T, the nation’s two largest DSL providers, and assumes cable companies will respond. The cable guys had pretty much won the war when it came to attracting new broadband subscribers, partly because they can advertise faster speeds, and because the newer high-speed services from the phone companies are cannibalizing DSL sales.

This is a price war that will be played out among the average user of “garden variety broadband services,” as the WSJ calls it. My guess is these are the folks using what Comcast cites as the average 2 GB or 3 GB per month, rather than those of you taking the 250 GB challenge in response to the caps some cable companies are implementing on their user base. In Time Warner’s case, the caps will likely benefit from price wars as a way to sign up customers under the new capped plans for lower prices. I noticed Verizon’s offer also contains an early termination fee. Both of which mean that in this price war, some consumers will lose.

image courtesy of Verizon

Competitors take aim at iPhone 3G holes

Sun, 31 Aug 2008 12:02:00 -0700

With the iPhone 3G network's recent problems, competitors are BOUND to attack. Verizon is taking advantage. See how it's unfolding right here!

Don’t Like Apple’s iPhone? Check Out the Touchscreen Phones of These 3 Companies

Sun, 31 Aug 2008 07:00:41 -0700

Apple shook up the mobile phone playing field with the introduction of the original iPhone a year ago. Phones with touchscreens were nothing new; most Windows Mobile phones have used them for years. But the older phones used resistive digitizer screens, which were operated by a tiny metal stylus. The iPhone uses a capacitive digitizer that’s operated by touching fingers to the screen — a remarkably convenient option, by comparison. It didn’t take consumers long to figure out this was the way to go with touch and other phone makers quickly followed Apple’s lead.

While making a handset with a touchscreen is no big technical feat, the process quickly makes clear the pivotal role that Apple’s UI plays in producing a good user experience. Indeed, UI often ends up being the crucial factor that separates the good phones from the rest. And while the number of phones competing with the iPhone is growing all the time, most come from three companies:

HTC -- Until the last couple of years, HTC was largely making phones for other companies, such as Palm. But once they introduced their own brand to the market, they quickly established themselves as high-end device makers. HTC was also one of the first to dive headfirst into the touch phone pool, and have since produced model after model.

The first (and still available) was the HTC Touch, a phone based on the Windows Mobile platform. Going with the Windows Mobile OS was an easy decision for HTC since it’s a mature platform with tools to handle both the consumer and enterprise markets. The problem is that it wasn’t designed from the ground up for a touch operation, which can severely limit such a phone’s usability. So HTC designed the TouchFLO interface, which sits on top of the Windows Mobile base and adds touch features.

While the HTC Touch wasn’t a bad first attempt, it fell short of being a solid competitor to the iPhone. It followed up this year with the release of the Touch Diamond. A sleek black phone with an enhanced UI designed for touch, it has been well received. And since Windows Mobile has more features than the iPhone, the Touch Diamond was an instant, solid competitor.

This month HTC extended their touch offering with the Touch Pro, which is very similar to the Diamond but also includes a slide-out QWERTY keypad for business users. The lack of such a feature on the iPhone has been roundly criticized by serious email users.

Currently HTC is creating a lot of buzz in the enthusiast community with its yet-to-be-released handset, the Dream. This touch phone is said to be based on the brand-new Google Android platform that T-Mobile is expected to launch next month. Information is gradually leaking out about the Dream — it looks like a device similar to the Touch Pro, complete with a large touchscreen coupled with a sliding QWERTY keyboard.

LG — Electronics giant LG has been making feature phones for years and have produced some solid touchscreen, non-phone devices. Feature phones have typically been viewed as less capable than their smartphone competition, but that criticism is harder to make these days as feature phones can now handle PIM functions and messaging. LG’s first touchscreen phone was the Voyager, which includes two displays — one big touchscreen on the front of the device, as is common, and a non-touchscreen on the inside. The keyboard flips up like a small laptop to be used with the interior screen, making the Voyager a distinctly different type of phone.

Most recently LG has followed up with the Dare, a phone without a keyboard that is touchscreen only. The UI, however, has been optimized for touch operation.

Samsung — Electronics firm Samsung has jumped into the touch phone game in a big way with the recent release of the Instinct, using a media advertising blitz to make clear how serious they were about this new genre. The Instinct has only been out a short while, but it’s already getting rave reviews, and from experts that are known for being hard on such devices. Its web browsing capabilities, notably, rival that of the iPhone.

If this story interests you, check out our upcoming conference:
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Memo To Comcast: Show Us the Meter for Metered Broadband

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:58:51 -0700

Comcast is out defending its bandwidth caps and how they are not bad. And how 250 GB transfer is plenty and enough to do whatever we want to do. Of course, in today’s terms that is more than enough, but what happens in the future? Nevertheless, if they are going to put caps, then they need to give us what I think is an acceptable expectation: a meter.

Metered billing needs a meter we can see, use and monitor any time we desire to do so. Water and electric utilities provide that meter (regardless of whether we use it or not), so why not Comcast?

If a customer surpasses 250 GB and is one of the top users of the service for a second time within a six-month timeframe, his or her service will be subject to termination for one year. After the one year period expires, the customer may resume service by subscribing to a service plan appropriate to his or her needs.

Figure out a way to tell us what our monthly usage is, and let us know if we are running up against a 250 GB cap, so that we know when to stop and not pay overage. I want to know at every single minute how much bandwidth I have used.

After all, if someone crosses the 250 GB twice in six months, they are going to get tossed out. The burden of proof lies with Comcast to prove, measure and meter to the most accurate byte of data transferred.

Another Question For Comcast: If you’re going to meter, then please let us know how you are factoring in the overhead associated with TCP/IP. Will this be included or excluded in the cap? After all, overhead includes control messages (session control, packet headers) and this can be as high as 40 percent.

This is where FCC Chairman Kevin Martin has to step up and do something. If he is going to allow Comcast to put caps in place, then the FCC needs a firm bond from Comcast saying that they wouldn’t lower the caps to, say, 150 GB or 100 GB using the same lame excuse of 1 percent people degrading the network.

You want to know why I think they are going to obfuscate the issue and fudge the numbers sooner or later using some Enron math? Just go to the FAQ page that explains their 250 GB cap decision. You will consume 250 GB in a month if you do any of the following:

* Sending 20,000 high-resolution photos,
* Sending 40 million emails;
* Downloading 50,000 songs; or
* Viewing 8,000 movie trailers.

…but then lower down on the same page, they say:

* Send 50 million emails (at 0.05 KB/email)
* Download 62,500 4 MB songs (at 4 MB/song)
* Download 125 standard-definition movies (at 2 GB/movie)
* Upload 25,000 hi-resolution digital photos (at 10 MB/photo)

What is it with you guys? Can’t do the math? Forget that…how about answering a simple question: How many HD movies can you download with 250 GB cap? That’s the only answer I need.

PS: If you believe the 0.05 kb/email then you also believe in the Tooth Fairy.

Who Wins: Verizon FiOS vs AT&T U-Verse

Tue, 19 Aug 2008 07:20:19 -0700

Who Wins: AT&T U-Verse or Verizon FiOS

Verizon recently launched its FiOS TV and fiber-based broadband service in New York City, The New York Times is taking stock of the service, which seems to be doing well. Verizon’s $23 billion investment into FiOS wasn’t viewed kindly, and Wall Street viewed AT&T’s cheaper U-Verse plan as more practical and affordable.

Despite such early shellacking on Wall Street, the company’s decision to go with the more expensive fiber is proving to be smarter, even though it is still not clear if (and when) Verizon is going to start making big money on its bet.

“If I were an auto dealer and I wanted to give people a Maserati for the price of a Volkswagen, I’d have some seriously happy customers,” said Craig Moffett, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein. “My problem would be whether I could earn a decent return doing it.”

Moffet estimates that the company is going to lose about $6 billion on FiOS all told. Others feel that 20 percent buy-in from potential customers makes it profitable. Wall Street seems to have warmed up to the Verizon story, impressed perhaps by its recent growth, especially when stacked up against AT&T.

My view is that all U.S. phone companies are in trouble because of major shifts that are going on in the industry. Verizon, with FiOS, at least has an offering that addresses the needs of the future broadband users. Whether they make money on it, who knows.

At the end of second quarter 2008, Verizon had more than 2 million FiOS Internet users and 1.4 million FiOS television users. In comparison, AT&T has 549,000 subscribers for its TV service. Verizon is offering better speeds than AT&T and is very competitive with its local cable rivals such as Time Warner Cable and Cablevision. In comparison, AT&T so far offers regular DSL packages whose speeds are spanked silly by cable offerings.

Anecdotally (and acknowledging the fact that technology blogs are skewed in favor of early adopters), it seems Verizon FiOS subscribers are happier with their Internet connections. I have no gauge of people’s reactions to FiOS TV. In comparison, AT&T U-Verse seems to elicit a response that can be summed up in one word: meh!

What do you guys think? Take our poll and share your thoughts.

Following 4G: The State of LTE

Sun, 17 Aug 2008 23:06:26 -0700

We have been following the emergence of 4G technologies pretty closely, including the looming battle between WiMAX and Long Term Evolution (LTE). As part of this continuing coverage, we are going to give you short updates on these technologies and current carrier plans. Stacey outlined the 4G plans of various U.S. carriers last week. This post is small update on the state of LTE market.

According to ABI Research, there will be 32 million subscribers on LTE by 2013, though LTE Networks aren’t likely to go commercial before 2010. Equipment maker Ericsson has predicted mass adoption in 2012. ABI says Asia Pacific will have 12 million LTE subscribers, while Western Europe and North America will share the remainder. ABI predicts that LTE will compete with fixed line broadband services such as DSL and spur a big demand for mobile-connected Internet devices — not necessarily personal computers or phones.

Carriers who are betting on LTE include China Mobile, Vodafone and Verizon Wireless. NTT DoCoMo and KDDI in Japan, AT&T and Metro PCS in the U.S., and a few other carriers are still working out plans that involve LTE.

Our previous LTE/4G posts:

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Can Optic Cables Predict Economic Shifts?

Sun, 17 Aug 2008 23:06:26 -0700

Having followed the optical network business for over a decade, one thing I have learned is that the boom and bust cycles of the business often mask patterns that have long-term implications. The overbuilding of U.S. networks in the 1990s foretold a bust in the telecom industry. The buying up of bankrupt carriers’ assets indicated the rise of new players including Google, which has built a fearsome infrastructure. These days, all the excitement in the optical business is around new undersea cables being laid (or planned), bridging previously unconnected parts of the world. These cables are, in fact, the early warning signs of a pending economic boom.

Let me explain. In the 1990s, we saw a grotesque number of cables laid under the Atlantic and Pacific, connecting the United States with Japan, parts of Asia Pacific and Europe.

Those three regions went through an unprecedented boom, much of it inspired by technological changes that had millions turning to the Internet. The boom, also inspired by deregulation of the telecom infrastructures in those countries, led to further spending on communications such as wireless phone calls and high-speed Internet. Unfortunately, the demand (captured quite well by bandwidth provider Global Crossing in early days) led to overbuilding, oversupply and eventually a bust.

Growing Fibers In Asia

A similar scenario is now playing out in the Trans-Pacific region where cables are being built rapidly, and the bandwidth capacity on pre-existing cables is being doubled. Many more cables under construction are connecting with India and China, both of which are going through their own economic booms. According to the World Bank, China is the world’s second largest economy, and India claims the fourth spot. These countries have become economic hubs — not only buying but also selling to the outside world. And a key ingredient of trade is the ability to communicate, which in turn requires the large amount of capacity that can only come with undersea fiber cables.

The latest such effort is SEACOM, a $650 million, 15,000-kilometer cable connecting East Africa with Asia and Europe that is expected to be completed in June 2009 and provide 1.28 Terabits per second of network capacity. This is just tip of the iceberg.

According to TeleGeography, a research firm that tracks the global broadband business, there are about 12 cables either in planning stages or under construction that will connect Africa to the rest of the planet. Those connections will have a theoretical capacity of over 13 Terabits per second, and construction is estimated to cost more than $3 billion.

In Africa, Mobiles Drive Bandwidth Demand

Why so much connectivity? After all, PC penetration is abysmally low in Africa. The answer is cell phones. At the beginning of 2008, there were a quarter of a billion mobile subscribers on the continent, according to International Telecommunications Union, and Portio Research estimates the number will increase to 378 million by 2011. Local companies are furiously building out networks, and by all indications, the overall market penetration is going to increase from the 28 percent mark reported at the start of this year. Cell phones need networks to transfer calls between countries, so there is a need for networks to circle the continent — or at least countries like Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, which have the most critical demand.

In the recent past, India went through a similar cycle, where a spurt in mobile sales acted as a catalyst for the overall economy. Phone calls provide the vital connections for trade to flourish in areas hitherto unconnected. Something similar is happening in Africa, where mobile banking has emerged as a facilitator of cross-border trade.

You can see a similar scenario set to play out in other parts of the world. There are about five cables on the drawing board or under construction that would connect Cambodia, Bangladesh, Vietnam and some of the smaller countries in Asia. All these countries are going through an economic upsurge and are becoming part of the global economic system.

This leads me to my conclusion: Building new cables is the equivalent of adding new roads, new shipping lanes or flights. The undersea fibers of today are what sea trading routes were in the past — an indicator of future economic activity and the subsequent boom.

This article first appeared on BusinessWeek.com

Newsflash: Congress Discovers that Web Firms Track Data

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 09:06:03 -0700

For any of us who recognize that personal privacy on the web is an illusion, the response to a Congressional inquiry asking how various ISPs and online portals target advertising and collect data will come as no surprise. Aside from the use of deep-packet inspection technology used by ISPs to insert advertising based on surfing habits, Congress discovered cookies and data retention policies. In a shocked tone, the Washington Post reported that Google is using DoubleClick’s tracking cookies to monitor where people go on the web in order to serve ads.

Is this really all that surprising? Wasn’t that one of the reasons Google paid $3.1 billion for DoubleClick? AOL also confessed to using tracking cookies and said relatively few (tens of thousands out of more than 100 million) users opted out of its targeted advertising program. Yahoo said it also uses behavioral ads but noted in its letter that it plans to announce the ability for consumers to opt out of such “customized ads.” It will still track users, though.

Looking beyond the major portals (excluding Microsoft, which hasn’t yet responded), the letters from the companies surveyed by the House Committee on Energy and Commerce turned up a few surprises such as Cable One, CenturyTel and Knowlogy using NebuAd’s deep-packet inspection technology in trials. I also noted that business providers such as Cbeyond, TW Telecom, and even large bandwidth providers Covad and XO Communications don’t use targeted advertising to their customers. Cablevision, Windstream, Comcast and Cox were the rare ISPs who aren’t using any real advertising efforts on their subscribers. Many providers did confess to typo squatting, however.

I’m not impressed by ISPs using invasive measures to track surfing habits to sell advertising, unless users are given some sort of price break and have a choice on whether they can opt-in. To me such tactics are undisclosed and give the consumer few outs if they don’t want to be tracked.

However, for free services, such as Google’s search engine or other web content providers, advertising is their lifeblood, and consumers (and Congress) should expect as much information tracking to take place as the portals can both devise and get away with. In the absence of regulatory protection and any other way of making money, it’s no surprise that advertising has become more invasive. Nothing in life is truly free.

For more on the topic check out these posts:

image courtesy of Congressman Ed Markey

Is iPhone’s 3G Connection a Disappointment?

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 14:05:31 -0700

Now that I’ve been using the new iPhone 3G for nearly a month, its capabilities and deficiencies are becoming clearer. The newer design makes it sleeker, easier to grip and a joy to look at. And the GPS chip has made the device infinitely useful, though it doesn’t appear that the developer community has started to leverage the technology very effectively.

What’s bad about it? There are a few things (the battery, for instance), but nothing compares to the disappointing 3G wireless connections from AT&T. As I pointed out earlier, there were some issues with AT&T 3G network, though company officials vociferously denied that was the case.

Thirty days later, I can safely say that there are definitely problems with the connection. The speeds are marginally better than the old EDGE network, and videos on apps like MLB At Bat are of poor quality. The signal strength rarely exceeds two bars in most places (except my living room, where it’s at full strength.)

I’m not sure if this is a Bay Area problem or a nationwide problem, nor do I know the cause — the network or the iPhone. One thing is for sure, the new device is pushing Internet data usage and revenues for AT&T in a big way. What is your experience? Share it with rest of us.

CNet News.com reports that there have been widespread complaints but that AT&T isn’t making any statements just yet. “What we’re seeing is that the iPhone 3G is performing very well,” Mark Siegel, a spokesman for AT&T, told News.com. “I’m not denying that people are having problems. But we have to deal with these on a case-by-case basis.”

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More Proof that the Internet Will Save Wireless Carriers

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 08:05:38 -0700

A report out from Chetan Sharma Consulting proves that data is the big story when it comes to wireless operators in the United States. Driven by flat-rate plans, increasing 3G coverage and the iPhone, data spending reached $8.2 billion for the second quarter of 2008, or about 21 percent of the total wireless services revenue. The boost in wireless services increased average revenue per user by 5 percent to 50 cents, offsetting a 5-cent decline in voice ARPU.

Verizon, which leads U.S. wireless operators with its 60 percent 3G subscriber penetration, saw the most growth in 3G usage and the most data revenue — $2.6 billion for the quarter. However, AT&T, the exclusive provider to the Internet-friendly iPhone, had only 25 percent 3G subscriber penetration but also saw its data sales come close to Verizon’s at $2.5 billion, proving that the Internet on the phone is a powerful driver of data revenue.

In the big picture of wireless revenue, carriers grew sales by 8.6 percent for the second quarter compared to the same period in 2007. In the second quarter of 2008 data revenue saw 40 percent growth. The numbers show we’re moving toward ubiquitous broadband in the United States but that we still have a ways to go. The average 30 percent 3G subscriber penetration rate could be improved, but perhaps cheaper 3G plans and Internet-friendly phones will pump up both subscribers and data revenue.

image from Chetan Sharma Consulting

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Tough Times Ahead for U.S. Phone Companies?

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 05:05:20 -0700

The second-quarter 2008 financial reports are in –- and the tea leaves aren’t showing a sunny future for phone companies. While their financials today look bearable, economic and demographic trends are acting as gale-force headwinds for the future. Here are some of the major issues they’re facing:

A slowing economy means people are choosing wireless phones over landlines, resulting in increased access line losses. That, in turn, is reducing the number of people the phone companies can convince to switch to their higher-speed networks and video services.
Cable’s triple-play bundles, which include higher speeds and voice, are starting to resonate with the residential customers, leading to further landline losses.
Phone companies’ own higher-speed services are starting to cannibalize their installed base instead of luring customers away from cable companies.

In broadband, cable rules for now

According to Leichtman Research, there were 65.1 million U.S. broadband subscribers at the end of the second quarter of 2008, with cable companies getting a larger share of the total –- 35.3 million subscribers. In comparison, phone companies have 29.7 million subscribers.

The two big cable operators, Comcast and Time Warner Cable, continue to add broadband subscribers at a furious pace, though their growth rate is starting to lose speed. In contrast, phone companies are having trouble adding subscribers, even as they roll out video and faster networks.

Phone companies’ broadband offerings are taking the shine off their DSL services. AT&T, for example, added 46,000 new subscribers (down from 491,000 last quarter) and 170,000 U-verse subscribers. John Hodulik of UBS Research suggests that when taken together, it lost around 124,000 DSL subscribers.

Verizon is experiencing similar issues. It added 187,000 FiOS Internet subscribers, but the total broadband tally came in at just 54,000 net additions for the quarter — a loss of 133,000 DSL lines, using the UBS method.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise. Once you hear about a much higher speed Verizon FiOS connection in your neighborhood, why would you want DSL? Cable companies have used this “more is better” mantra to their advantage, offering up all sorts of geewgaws, like Comcast’s Powerboost.

An AT&T spokesman told the Wall Street Journal that speed is only one component of a broadband service and offered up other arguments such as shared capacity and other technical mumbo jumbo to justify that their DSL connections are better. “We offer the best broadband for the price,” he told the Journal.

I was amused, because when you sell broadband, speed is the most critical component — and all these points made by the phone company guys don’t translate too well in the winner-take-all world of consumer marketing.

The divergence between U.S. cable and telephone companies can be easily explained: Cable companies added phone service and offered triple-play service, stealing voice customers from the phone companies. Phone companies are responding to the triple-play threat by rolling out their own video networks, but it is early days and really slow going. Since voice networks are easy to roll out compared with big video networks, phone companies are finding themselves on the losing end of the equation.

Where did my lines go?

As I’ve said before, the biggest problem for phone companies is that they’re losing voice customers at a rapid clip -– either to cable operators or to wireless. Many believe that uncertainty regarding the economy is making people pick a wireless-only option — a theory supported by robust growth in the wireless additions at Verizon (1.5 million net new subscribers) and AT&T Wireless (1.3 million net new subscribers).

This continuous line loss reduces the pool of potential switchers to video and higher-speed broadband services. You want to know how bad it is? Here’s a quick rundown of second-quarter losses: Qwest saw a 10.2 percent decline in residential lines; AT&T an 8.7 percent drop; Verizon lost 8.5 percent (1.4 percent decline in residential switched access lines), and Embarq lines dropped 7.8 percent. All four percentage losses were higher than in the previous quarter.

What phone companies should do

I think between the bluster and hype, the reality is that phone companies are facing an uncomfortable today and an uncertain tomorrow.

Big phone companies should take a cue from Roseville, Calif.-based Surewest Communications, a smaller player that’s been very aggressive about offering broadband at competitive prices, offering higher speeds and, in general, meeting consumer demands. It reported a 1 percent sequential decline in voice lines for the quarter and a 2 percent jump in broadband subscribers. It’s trying hard to compensate for access line losses with VoIP services. The company said that “over 82 percent of existing data subscribers who signed up for VoIP increased their Internet speeds to enhance the overall experience.”

Maybe it’s time for the big boys to let go of their legacy and fully embrace the future — including offering better broadband, advanced services and new voice at prices that are much lower than cable. At least that way they can start to stem the tide of losses.

Wireless Results Scorecard

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:14:36 -0700

The four major mobile carriers have presented their 2008 second quarter financial results, and it’s really a tough time to be Sprint. We compiled a quick scorecard after T-Mobile USA reported its numbers this morning, so for an at-a-glance view of which added the most new subscribers (Verizon) or which makes the most money off of each subscriber (Sprint), see below.

AT&T reported Q2 earnings on July 23:

Wireless revenue: $12 billion
Wireless operating income: $3.1 billion
Churn (postpaid only): 1.1 percent
Net adds: 1.3 million
Total subscribers: 72.9 million
Data revenue: $2.5 billion
Average ARPU: $50.60

Verizon reported Q2 earnings on July 28:

Wireless revenue: $12.1 million billion
Wireless operating income: N/A
Blended churn: 1.12 percent, postpaid 0.83 percent
Net adds: 1.5 million
Total subscribers: 68.7 million
Data revenue: $2.6 billion
Average ARPU: $51.53

Sprint reported Q2 results on August 6:

Wireless revenue: $7.7 billion
Wireless operating loss: $142 million
Churn (postpaid only): “just under” 2 percent
Net loss: 901,000
Total subscribers: 51.9 million
Data revenue: N/A
Average ARPU: $53.47 (excludes wholesale customers)

T-Mobile reported Q2 earnings today:

Wireless revenue: $4.85 billion
Wireless net income: $452 million
Blended churn: 2.7 percent, postpaid 1.9 percent
Net adds: 668,000
Total subscribers: 31.5 million
Data revenue: N/A
Average ARPU: $52

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